The Shah, Khomeini and Christmas
Harry S. Dent is an economist who creates personal wealth. Not only does he give market advice, he puts his own money into those markets. I tend to listen to economists who actually have “skin in the game.”
One of his most famous comments is “Demographics is destiny. It shows where a country is going.” Ignore this at your peril.
For instance: Why isn’t Japan recovering from its economic slide? Its population is aging. It doesn’t have much in the way of youth and energy and that’s a major reason why it can’t shake the recession. Japan is imitating what has happened to Europe.
When you look at demographics, you can often see where an economy is headed. And you can also get a glimpse into the political future.
The Dec. 15 issue of the Financial Times of London has an article looking back at the fall of the Shah of Iran.
Back in the 1970s Sir Nicholas Brown (England’s Ambassador to Iran) wrote dire warnings of the pending fall of the Shah in Iran and the rise of radical Islam. His analysis will be released to the public soon because the 30-year secrecy limit in England will expire. His report should really become must reading for people who care about politics (and business).
Why?
The Hostage Crisis of 1979 and our continuing problems with Islamic radicals could have been recognized much earlier if leaders had been paying attention. Brown’s report points out three key blind spots that all leaders should be watching out for.
One: There is the problem of allowing short term money to drive policy. One of the reasons the West overlooked the problems with the Shah is because he was buying a bunch of stuff, particularly military hardware. He was a good customer. And then there was cheap oil that we wanted to keep flowing.
Do you know activists who may be driving supporters away from your organization, yet because you like them or they help you personally, you overlook their detrimental effect? How many problem clients do you allow to control your agenda because they are worth a great deal of money to you?
Two: Not staying in touch with real people. Brown discounted the reports of agents who claimed to be “fresh from the field” who had clean shoes. These people would claim the Shah is loved by everyone, but it was obvious that they were in areas with the elites, and not in the market squares where the vast majority lived.
How many of us start accepting as reality what people around us say, but never go out to see if others share the same view? Are you caught in an “echo chamber” where 8–20 activists are all of like mind, but you are the only people talking about this issue?
Three: Ignoring changing demographics. When the Shah’s family was set up in power in 1941, Iran had a much smaller population. The Shah tried modernizing his country. But he ignored a rapid rise in the birthrate that came with oil money. A period of rapid uncertain change with a population bubble of rebellious teens was bound to create problems.
Khomeini started attracting a large following in the traditional Shia community and urged Islamic clerics to return to Sharia law and rule. His message caught the imagination of Iranian youth with a vision of Islamic superiority. Leaders in the West assumed that everyone liked our culture and ideas. Actually it offended the sensibilities and traditions of so many people that it lead to a complete rejection of all things secular.
Are you ignoring character flaws or issue positions in your legislative leader that may be revolting to many people because he or she is great on your issue? It is easy to excuse excesses in our own little gatherings but it ticks most people off.
These are tough questions.
It is not easy to ask how your leader is perceived by most people. We often get our view of reality tainted by money, hanging around the usual crowd, and ignoring demographic change.
Since many of us have a tendency to leave our “political enclaves” during the holidays to meet with family and friends we don’t work with, take some time to ask them how they perceive leaders and issues AND LISTEN (don’t argue them into submission).
We really do owe it to our ideas to be in touch with reality. I always love working with people who are enthusiastic, but not with zealots who can’t get along with others who are not 100% in support of their ideas. Most people are polite and don’t argue back, but that doesn’t mean they agree with you.
Have a great Christmas, enjoy the season and rest up—because we need you next year!


Tactics -- it's how you implement strategy. You use tactics all the time and they are being used against YOU too. You want to get out of the store quickly, so you make tactical judgments which line to get in, or to ask the manager to open another lane. Or it is bigger, like how you fire someone, or force them to quit. Some tactics you find ethical, others you may think are sleazy -- I'm not asking you to use a tactic, but being ignorant of a tactic doesn't make you virtuous; it just makes you a victim.